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TempestTempest
Educational material, not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options involve significant risk and are not suitable for every investor. Past behavior of any reading or setup does not guarantee future results.
Beta. Tempest is in beta for Pro members. Readings, panels and names can change while it is in beta. Not on Pro yet, or want to hear when Tempest opens wider? Join the Tempest waitlist.

Why it matters

Every option price carries a guess about how far the stock will move. Tempest reads that guess for you. It answers one question: how much movement are options paying for, and is that a lot for this stock? That tells you three things:
  • How far options are pricing the stock to move by today’s close, this week or this month, in dollars. Traders use it as a yardstick for targets, stops and strikes.
  • Whether options are cheap or expensive right now compared with the stock’s own past.
  • Whether today’s move is ordinary or unusual for this stock, measured on its own ruler.
In plain English. Option prices carry the market’s guess of how much a stock will move. Expensive options mean it is bracing for big swings; cheap ones, a quiet stretch. SVX turns that guess into one number per stock, as the VIX does for the S&P 500. It sizes the swing, not its direction.

Where to find it

Tempest is available to Pro members during the beta.
  1. In the sidebar, open the Heatseeker menu and pick Tempest. On a phone, tap the Tempest button in the nav bar.
  2. Tempest opens on the radar. Type any ticker in the search box at the top to open that stock.

What Tempest measures

Every reading answers the same question: how much movement options are paying for, and whether that is a lot for this stock.

SVX (Skylit Volatility Index)

SVX is a VIX-style reading built for each stock from its own options. Like the VIX, it is stated as a yearly percentage. SVX30 covers the next month, SVX9 about two weeks, SVX1D the next session, SVX3M the next quarter. To turn SVX into a price move, divide by the square root of time: These are 1σ (one standard deviation) moves. In the textbook bell curve, price finishes inside them on about 68% of days, and inside twice that on about 95%. Real stocks have more big days than the textbook. Vol points are the gap between two of these yearly readings. SVX 32 against SVX 30 is a 2 vol point gap.
The SVX history panel: SVX30 and SVX1D over six months, with the usual-range band, an E marker at earnings, and the Weekend-adjusted and Put vs call skew checkboxes.The SVX history panel: SVX30 and SVX1D over six months, with the usual-range band, an E marker at earnings, and the Weekend-adjusted and Put vs call skew checkboxes.

Weekend-adjusted readings

SVX counts every calendar day, weekends included, as the VIX does. Stocks barely move on a Saturday, so options priced across a weekend look “cheaper per day” on a Friday afternoon and snap back on Monday. Left alone, the history line would saw-tooth every week and every Friday would look cheap just for being a Friday. So Tempest keeps two versions of each reading:
  • SVX (standard): the headline number on every tile, card and radar column. Comparable with the VIX and with implied volatility quoted elsewhere.
  • SVX (weekend-adjusted): the same prices with that weekly calendar pattern taken out. Percentiles, IV rank, the usual-range band, setups, implied-vs-realized and Fear & Greed all use it, and the history chart shows it by default (the Weekend-adjusted checkbox switches to the standard line).
In a normal week the two sit close together. The adjusted one is just steadier from Friday to Monday.

The readings, and the question each answers

Read it in 30 seconds

Search a ticker in Tempest, then read it top to bottom:
  1. How big is the priced move? Read the next-day and weekly expected move in % and $. Many traders use it as a yardstick for targets and stops.
  2. Is it rich or cheap for this stock? Read the SVX percentile, not the raw SVX. A 61 can be expensive for one stock and cheap for another.
  3. Why? Check the earnings date, the term structure and the E markers on the history chart. Expensive options ahead of a known event have an obvious reason. Expensive options with no event in sight are harder to explain.
  4. Priced vs delivered. Compare the Straddle and Realized columns in Expected move. Implied well above realized means options are charging for more movement than the stock has been making.
  5. Which side? Skew and premium imbalance show whether calls or puts are priced lower relative to each other.

Is SVX 100 a lot?

On its own, no. SVX 100 means options are pricing about ±6.3% a day and ±29% a month. For SPY that would be a crisis. For a meme stock it can be an ordinary week. That is why the radar ranks by each stock’s percentile against its own history, not by raw SVX. High SVX means options are expensive, not that they are overpriced. Premium turns out “inflated” only if the stock then moves less than priced, which nobody knows in advance. Three checks describe how expensive it is today:
  • The percentile is 80 or more against the stock’s own year.
  • Implied is above realized: the straddle or SVX-implied move sits clearly above the Realized column.
  • No known event falls inside the window: earnings, FDA, index rebalance.
All three together is as close as Tempest gets to “rich”. It is still a description of pricing, not a forecast.

How to use it

Tempest has four places to work from. Each has its own section below. Then see patterns traders watch and how earnings show up.

Rank the market: the radar

Why it matters: the radar shows which stocks have unusually cheap or expensive options today, each against its own history. No more checking names one by one. Where: Tempest opens on the radar. On desktop it sits on the left; on a phone it is a list of cards with a filter sheet.
  1. Pick the percentile basis (Horizon × Lookback, e.g. 30D %ile 1y). It drives the first column, the Rich/Cheap presets and the group medians.
    • Horizon: the period you care about. 1D for the next session, 9D for about two weeks, 30D for the standard read, 3M for a quarter.
    • Lookback (1y, 3y, 5y): how far back “usual” reaches.
  2. Pick a preset to filter the list, or sort by any column.
  3. Click (or tap) a row to open that stock’s detail.
The Tempest radar ranked by 30D %ile 1y: one row per stock with its 1y range, SVX30, SVX1D, IV rank and term, and badges such as Earnings in 5d and Skew flip.The Tempest radar ranked by 30D %ile 1y: one row per stock with its 1y range, SVX30, SVX1D, IV rank and term, and badges such as Earnings in 5d and Skew flip.
Extra columns (desktop, Columns button): Curve, Skew 30d, Skew %ile, Tilt, Cheap side, Earnings in, Earnings move %, VRP, vs sector and Fear/greed. vs sector is how many percentile points the stock sits above or below its sector’s median. Fear/greed is each stock’s own 0–100 reading (see Fear & Greed). Group the list by sector or theme (on a phone, in the Filters sheet) to see which groups are rich or cheap as a block. Each group shows its median percentile, median SVX30, median next-day move and how many names are rich. A whole sector going rich at once is a market story. One rich stock in a calm sector is a story about that stock. Hide approximate is on by default. It drops stocks with rough readings: too few quotes right now, or a share price so low that the numbers get coarse.

Why the radar shows fewer names than Tempest covers

The count above the radar reads “N of <total> names”. Tap or hover it to see where the rest are:
  • Priced under $5 — approximate: on the radar, hidden while Hide approximate is on.
  • Hidden by your filters: presets, sectors, themes, watchlists.
  • Too few quoted contracts for a reliable reading: only a few of the name’s option contracts had two-sided quotes, so a volatility reading wouldn’t be reliable. These stay off the radar and out of rankings.
  • No option quotes this session: the name has listed options, but none were quoted.
  • No listed options: no listed options were found for the symbol.
  • Couldn’t be read on the last pass: retried automatically.
  • Not reached yet: right after Tempest starts, during market hours; appears within minutes.
Searching for a name that isn’t on the radar still opens it, with a short note saying why. Thin names keep their flagged readings below that note.

Read one stock: ticker detail

Why it matters: one page shows how far the stock is priced to move and whether that is cheap or expensive for it. It also shows which side, calls or puts, is priced lower. Where: search a ticker in Tempest, or click a row on the radar. On a phone, the detail has a pinned header whose tabs jump between sections.
  1. Read the Summary at the top first.
  2. Jump to a section with the section tabs, or scroll.
  3. Tap a panel’s header to fold or unfold it. Tempest remembers your choice.
Summary, Setups, SVX, Expected move, History, Skew and Sigma start open. Implied vs actual, Imbalance, Earnings and Term start folded with a one-line teaser. The section tabs open whatever they jump to. On desktop the radar and the ticker detail scroll independently, both below the toolbar. Drag the divider between them to resize (double-click resets it, arrow keys nudge it). Tempest remembers the split in your browser.

Summary

The panel is titled In plain English: a few sentences that read the whole picture. On a phone it opens with three numbers first: the next-day move (% and $), SVX30 with its percentile, and today’s σ with its odds.

SVX

  • SVX %ile 1y (the large number) with the 1y range and how many sessions it rests on. Under about 60 sessions, treat percentiles as provisional.
  • Tiles: SVX30, SVX1D, SVX9, SVX3M, SVX6M, each with its price-terms translation (for example ”≈ ±16%/month”), plus IV rank, SVX/S&P, Term 9-30 and Curve.
  • SVX across horizons: a grid of percentiles, horizon (rows) × lookback (columns). Shading gets lighter as percentiles rise. Use it to see where the richness sits. A hot 1D row with a cool 3M row points to an event. Hot across the board is a lasting shift.
  • Settling back: a gauge of SVX30 against this stock’s usual range (its middle 60% of days, median marked). Below it, one sentence covers the past times SVX was this high (or low). It says how often SVX was back to usual within a month, how long that took, and how many episodes that rests on. Under 5 episodes, it says there isn’t enough history. It describes this stock’s past, not what SVX will do next.

Expected move

One row per horizon: Today (to today’s close), Next day, This week (to Friday’s close), Monthly exp. (to the third Friday) and 30 days. Each row shows the 1σ move in % and $, the price range it implies, the 2σ move, and two cross-checks:
  • Straddle: the move implied by at-the-money options alone. It should roughly agree with the main number. A large gap means the far strikes are priced differently from the middle.
  • Realized: how much the stock has actually been moving, scaled to the same horizon. Implied well above realized means options are charging for more movement than the stock has been making. Implied below realized means options are behind the stock.
The Expected move panel for one stock: Today, Next day, This week, Monthly exp. and 30 days, each with the 1σ move in % and $, its price range, the 2σ move and the Straddle and Realized cross-checks.The Expected move panel for one stock: Today, Next day, This week, Monthly exp. and 30 days, each with the 1σ move in % and $, its price range, the 2σ move and the Straddle and Realized cross-checks.
When price is already outside today’s range, a neutral note says by how much, e.g. “Above today’s expected range by $0.56 (+1.80σ)”. “On chart” marks the horizons currently drawn on Atlas.

SVX history

  • SVX30 and SVX1D over 3M, 6M, 1Y, 3Y, 5Y or All. The longer ranges switch to weekly points.
  • Usual range band: where SVX30 sat on the middle 60% of days over the prior year, with a dashed median. Readings above the band are rich, below it cheap, each judged against what was usual at that time.
  • Put vs call skew line (toggle): above 0 puts cost more (demand for protection), below 0 calls cost more (demand for upside).
  • E markers flag the night before earnings, when SVX1D spikes by design because it includes the report move.
  • Weekend-adjusted by default, so the line does not dip every Friday and bounce every Monday. Untick Weekend-adjusted to see the standard (VIX-style) readings. See Weekend-adjusted readings.

Skew

In plain English. Skew compares what traders pay for downside insurance (puts) with what they pay for upside bets (calls) the same distance from price. On most stocks puts cost more, the way flood insurance costs more near a river. When that gap narrows or flips toward calls, the crowd has started paying for upside.
  • Skew 30d: how many vol points protective puts cost above comparable calls, about a month out. Skew %ile 1y says whether that is unusual for this stock.
  • Implied vol 30d for the same expiry.
  • Smile: implied vol across strikes for the roughly one-month expiry, drawn next to its expected shape. Points far above the shape are locally expensive strikes; far below, locally cheap.
  • Per-expiry skew table: skew for each expiration. A front expiry far more skewed than later ones = near-term fear.
The Skew panel: the spot-vol label, Skew 30d, Skew %ile 1y and Implied vol 30d, the smile against its expected shape, and skew for each expiration.The Skew panel: the spot-vol label, Skew 30d, Skew %ile 1y and Implied vol 30d, the smile against its expected shape, and skew for each expiration.

Premium imbalance

Which side is cheap, how lopsided, how unusual, and whether the contracts trade well enough to trust. Full explanation in Premium imbalance.

Earnings

  • Earnings in (days), priced move (1σ) for the report day, and the typical past move after recent reports.
  • Past reactions as bars, one per recent report, signed.
  • VRP box: how many vol points implied sits above recent realized, with its percentile. It also shows how often, over the past year, options priced more movement than the stock then delivered (“pricier than what followed”). That is a description of the past year, not a forecast.

Term structure

In plain English. Normally the market is calmer about next week than about the months after, so near-dated vol sits below later-dated vol. That is contango, the calm state. When next week is priced as rougher than the months after, that is backwardation: an event is coming, or stress is already underway.
One row per expiration: days to expiry, implied vol and the straddle-implied 1σ move. The implied vol is read across all strikes, so it runs a little above the at-the-money figure brokers show. The table shows how pricing changes from one expiry to the next. A kink up at one date usually marks an event. This section starts folded.

Sigma

In plain English. Sigma measures today’s move with the stock’s own ruler. If options price a stock for about 2% a day, a 4% day is 2σ. If SPY is priced for about 1%, a 2% day is also 2σ. That makes a quiet index and a jumpy small cap comparable.
  • Running: today’s move so far in σ, with the prior close, its date and the move in dollars (“vs 773.52 (Sep 22) · −$0.08”).
  • Last big move: a chip for the latest 1.5σ+ session in the past week, e.g. “Sep 21 +2.27σ · a 2.3% day”.
  • Calibration: one line on whether this stock has broken its expected range more or less often than options priced, over its recent history. Example: “SPY breaks its expected range less often than options price: 1σ+ days 22% vs 32%”. A fat tails flag appears when its 2σ days have run well above the textbook rate.
  • Priced for today: the move options priced at the prior close for today’s session, in % and $.
  • Budget left: how much movement options still price between now and the close (“session closed” outside regular hours).
  • The 60-session strip: tap or drag to read any day (see Look up a day’s sigma). 2σ+ days are drawn brighter so they stand out without tapping; E marks earnings reactions.
  • Odds: how often moves this big happen, textbook vs this stock’s own history. A stock whose own 2σ days happen far more often than 5% has fat tails.
  • Big-move give-back: after past 1.5σ+ days, how often price gave back at least half within a week, with the number of episodes. It describes this stock’s past, not what happens after the next big day.
  • Sigma scale: the four textbook bands (within ±1σ 68%, 1–2σ 27%, 2–3σ 4.3%, beyond 3σ 0.3%) with today’s band highlighted.
The Sigma panel: Running, Priced for today and Budget left, the calibration line, the 60-session strip with an E marker, big-move give-back and the sigma scale.The Sigma panel: Running, Priced for today and Budget left, the calibration line, the 60-session strip with an E marker, big-move give-back and the sigma scale.

Look up a day’s sigma

Why it matters: one tap tells you whether yesterday, or any of the last 60 sessions, was ordinary for that stock or rare. Where: Tempest > search a ticker > Sigma. A shorter strip (the last 30 sessions) is in the Aegis Tempest tab on Atlas.
  1. Open Tempest (sidebar Heatseeker menu, or the Tempest button in the phone nav bar) and search the ticker.
  2. Go to Sigma (on a phone, tap the Sigma tab in the pinned header).
  3. The strip shows the last 60 sessions, with the tallest bars the biggest moves. It opens on the latest session. Tap or drag across it (arrow keys on desktop) to read any day.
The readout says, for example: Sep 22: closed −0.02σ · moves at least this big happen on about 99% of days · day's range 0.5σ. A normal day, in other words. “Closed” measures close-to-close against the move options priced at the prior close. “Day’s range” measures high-to-low in the same units.

Premium imbalance: which side is cheap

Why it matters: it shows whether calls or puts are priced lower relative to each other today, after allowing for the stock’s usual tilt. Where: Ticker detail > Imbalance, the Premium imbalance preset on the radar, and the Tilt and Cheap side columns (Columns button).
In plain English. Think of a shop that always charges more for umbrellas than sunglasses. That markup is normal. Premium imbalance asks whether umbrellas, or sunglasses, are unusually cheap today compared with that shop’s usual markup. Puts are the umbrellas; calls are the sunglasses.
The idea: options are not priced evenly on both sides. Out-of-the-money puts normally cost more than calls the same distance away, because investors pay up for crash protection. Every stock has its own normal tilt. Premium imbalance asks a sharper question: after allowing for that normal tilt, is one side unusually cheap today? To read it:
  1. Open a ticker and unfold Imbalance (it starts folded).
  2. Read Cheap side first. Then read Tilt and Tilt vs history to see how lopsided and how unusual it is.
  3. Check that the contracts trade well enough to trust (see the guards below).
To find names across the market, pick the Premium imbalance preset on the radar.
The Premium imbalance panel for one stock: the cheap side, put/call price, same-distance ratio and tilt vs history, the legs against their lows, and the tilt for each expiration.The Premium imbalance panel for one stock: the cheap side, put/call price, same-distance ratio and tilt vs history, the legs against their lows, and the tilt for each expiration.

The readings, from rough to refined

The legs

The headline expiry is the one nearest about three weeks out. For it, the ticker detail shows how far each leg, the call and the put, trades above its lowest price since it started trading, with that low and its date (“At its low” when it is there). On the radar, the Premium imbalance preset switches to its own columns, including each leg’s price and strike (Call price @ strike, Put price @ strike) and Cheap leg vs its low. A cheap side whose leg is also at its low is cheap two ways: against the other side and against its own history. The per-expiry table repeats the read for each expiration. That shows whether the imbalance sits on one date or across the whole curve.

Two guards against false readings

  • Liquidity: the contracts must actually trade, with tight quotes and real interest or volume at that strike. Otherwise the imbalance can come from stale quotes. Only liquid readings count for the radar preset.
  • Consistency: when nearby strikes disagree in a way that means the reading is off, Tempest marks it inconsistent and never counts it as liquid.

What traders read from it

  • Which side is priced lower. Traders who have already formed a view look at it to compare calls and puts before choosing between them.
  • Which side is rich. Premium sellers look at the side that is priced higher than usual.
  • Sentiment. Calls unusually cheap means few traders are paying for upside. Some traders compare that with Heatseeker’s exposure.
Keep in mind.
  • Imbalance tells you which side is cheaper, not which way the stock will go.
  • Around earnings both sides reprice and the tilt can swing; read it after the report.
  • After the close, the liquidity check carries over from the session’s last live reading, because official close quotes don’t include volume.

Expected moves on your chart

Why it matters: you see the priced range right on the candles, as reference levels, without switching screens. Where: on Atlas, open plugins > Tempest, then the gear for its settings. The Tempest tab in Atlas’s Aegis panel shows the same readings in a compact panel next to the chart, including the tappable sigma strip. On a phone it opens as a sheet.
  1. Turn on the Tempest plugin on Atlas.
  2. Open its settings (gear) and choose Show: Cones, Levels (Daily range / Weekly range / ±2σ lines), or both.
  3. Pick the Cone horizons and Bands (68%, 95%, Labels, Out-of-range note), then set Band opacity so the bands stay readable under your other plugins.
The plugin has two layers that answer different questions.

Cones: the priced range from here

Anchored to the last bar · widen with time Cones draw the priced range forward from now to the end of each horizon. Cone horizons: Today (to the close), Next day, This week (to Friday), Monthly (third Friday), 30 days. Defaults: Today + This week.
  • Inner 68% band (1σ) and outer 95% band (2σ), each can be turned on or off. Fills grow lighter toward the horizon.
  • Price tags at the band ends show the actual prices, e.g. “Today 1σ 775.20” / “768.26”, plus the 2σ pair on the nearest horizon.
A Tempest cone on an SPY chart in Atlas: the 1σ and 2σ bands widening from the last bar to the end of the week, with price tags at the band ends.A Tempest cone on an SPY chart in Atlas: the 1σ and 2σ bands widening from the last bar to the end of the week, with price tags at the band ends.

Levels: fixed lines, like exposure levels

Anchored to a past close · don’t move intraday Horizontal price lines at the range options priced at a fixed moment, drawn like Heatseeker’s exposure levels and following zoom and pan.
  • Daily range: today’s 1σ range as priced at the prior close.
  • Weekly range: this week’s range as priced at last week’s final close.
  • ±2σ lines (optional): the 95% edges of each.
Tempest levels on an SPY chart in Atlas: today's priced range as fixed daily ±1σ lines, each labeled with its price on the right axis.Tempest levels on an SPY chart in Atlas: today's priced range as fixed daily ±1σ lines, each labeled with its price on the right axis.
In Atlas replay the range levels and the out-of-range note are hidden: they show today’s option pricing, which would mislead on past bars. The cone is hidden too, unless you turn on Cone at replay time in the Tempest plugin’s settings (off by default).

Replay and pin: how a cone played out

As priced at the replay time · frozen once pinned
  • Turn it on: Atlas plugins > Tempest > settings > Cone at replay time (“pin to score it”).
  • In Atlas replay the cone is the one options priced at the replay time, never a later one, drawn from that moment’s price. The panel at the bottom left says when: “as priced at 13:14”. Before a session’s first reading, or after the close, it is the previous close’s cone; reconstructed means that close cone was rebuilt from the day’s stored history. Today’s live cone never appears on past bars.
  • Pin freezes the cone on screen (in replay or live). As the replay moves on, or new bars arrive, the panel scores it using only bars that had closed by then: the share of closes inside 1σ, where the latest close sits in σ, the furthest move in σ, when price first closed outside 1σ, and when it first reached 2σ. A check mark means that horizon has ended.
  • Right after a pin the band is very narrow, so the first bar or two often read as outside 1σ.
  • Replays start on Sep 23, 2026 for readings taken during the session; earlier days show the close cones.

How traders read them

  • Reversal traders watch the levels as places where a move has already covered what options priced, often next to Heatseeker’s walls (see Heatseeker terms). The weekly lines frame multi-day moves.
  • Breakout traders watch closes through the daily 1σ line, and whether SVX1D is rising with them, as a sign a move is running larger than priced.
  • Option traders use the cones to see where strikes sit against the priced range at a given expiry.
  • Out-of-range note (on by default): a small neutral tag when price is already outside today’s range, so you notice a 1σ+ day without checking Tempest.

Market tab

Why it matters: the same reading means something different in a calm market and a stressed one. The Market tab tells you which one you are in before you look at a single stock. Where: Tempest > Market tab. The strip across the top of every Tempest page shows the regime, S&P 30-day, 30d/3m, vol of vol and tail-risk readings at a glance. Read the Regime word first. Then check the rows below for what is driving it.

Skylit Fear & Greed

Why it matters: one number for the market’s mood, read from what options traders are actually paying, not from headlines or surveys. Where: Tempest > Market tab for the gauge and its history. “Fear & Greed 38 · Fear” sits in the strip on every Tempest page. Per stock: add the Fear/greed column on the radar (Columns button). The score runs 0–100. 0 is extreme fear, 100 extreme greed. Bands: under 20 extreme fear, 20–40 fear, 40–60 neutral, 60–80 greed, 80+ extreme greed. The Market tab shows:
  • the gauge, with one plain read (“options are pricing more fear than on 63% of the past 6 months”)
  • the components, sorted so the ones driving the score come first (up to six)
  • the score’s history
Skylit Fear & Greed on the Market tab: the 0 to 100 gauge, one plain-English read, the components sorted by how much they drive the score, and the score's history.Skylit Fear & Greed on the Market tab: the 0 to 100 gauge, one plain-English read, the components sorted by how much they drive the score, and the score's history.
Per stock: the radar’s optional Fear/greed column gives each stock its own 0–100 from its SVX percentile, its skew percentile and its premium imbalance. A stock in fear while the market is neutral is stress specific to that stock. A stock in greed while the market is in fear stands apart from the market in the options market.

How traders read it

  • Extreme fear comes with expensive protection and rich premium across many names. Reversal traders watch those stretches for signs of capitulation in price, alongside Heatseeker.
  • Premium sellers note that fear means rich premium, and watch whether the score is still falling or has started to turn.
  • Momentum traders watch greed with a calm term structure. Extreme greed together with “crowded calm” is widely read as complacency.
These are ways traders read the score, not signals.

Mag 7 dispersion

On the Market tab. It compares the Mag 7’s average SVX30 with QQQ’s, as a ratio with its percentile. Example: “Mag 7 options price 1.68× the QQQ’s move, 22nd %ile”. High: the big names are priced to move on their own stories. Low: they are priced to move together with the index.

Setups: past episodes for this stock

Why it matters: one memorable chart can mislead. Setups shows, for this exact stock, how often a condition came before a big move in the past, next to how often big moves happened anyway. Where: Ticker detail > Setups, right under the summary. Skew flip and Coiled are also radar presets, with badges on rows and cards.
Historical, not a forecast. Setups are descriptive statistics from each stock’s own recent history (roughly the past one to two years), measured on that same history. They describe what followed before. They do not predict what the stock will do next, and they are not tested trading signals.
For each stock, Tempest finds the past times it was in a given condition. It reports what followed for that stock, always next to a base rate. The base rate is how often the same thing happened in any stretch of that length.
  1. Open a ticker. Setups sits right under the summary.
  2. Find the conditions the stock is in now.
  3. Compare each figure with its base rate, and check how many past episodes it rests on.
Each line gives, for the past episodes of that condition: how many there were, the median size of the move over the next 20 sessions, how often that move was up, the largest moves each way, and how often a 2σ day followed within 10 sessions, next to the same figure for any 10-session stretch. The base rate is the part to read first. It shows whether, in this stock’s past, 2σ days came more often after the condition than they did anyway. A gap between the two describes the past; it is not odds for the next episode.

Coiled

Coiled is four conditions at once:
  • Skew just flipped toward calls: the options crowd has started paying for upside.
  • Skew at its yearly lows: that flip is extreme for this stock, not noise.
  • Calls are the cheap side (premium imbalance): calls are priced low relative to puts.
  • Vol not rich: SVX is not in its rich zone.
It is strict on purpose, so it is rare. Most stocks have no past episodes yet and show “not enough history”. Where it has history, its line shows the episode count and the base rate next to it. It appears as a radar preset, a badge on rows and cards, and highlighted at the top of the stock’s Setups.
Read the counts. A setup with 5 past episodes is a hint, not a statistic. The base rate is there so a figure is read against the stock’s own ordinary stretches, not against nothing.

Vol-trader reads

Why it matters: these panels compare what options priced with what the stock then did, over its own past. Has this stock moved more or less than priced? Where: all inside the ticker detail.

Implied vs actual

In plain English. Implied is the move the options market charges for. Realized is the move the stock actually made. Comparing the two shows whether options have been charging for more movement than the stock delivered, or less.
The chart plots SVX30 against the stock’s 20-day realized volatility. Next to it: today’s gap, its percentile, and how often implied was above realized over past sessions.
  • A wide gap at a high percentile means options are priced well above recent movement.
  • A negative gap means realized is above implied: options are behind the stock.
Both describe the past; neither says what the stock will do next.

Spot–vol behaviour

Shown in the Skew section, with the correlation. It is one of three labels:
  • Normal: vol rises when the stock falls. Most stocks.
  • Call-skew: vol rises with the stock, a call-skew regime. Seen in meme and squeeze names.
  • Mixed: neither.

Earnings record

For recent reports, the move priced going in sits next to the move that happened. One line sums it up, e.g. “the priced move was bigger than the actual move in 6 of 8 reports”. It describes past reports only.

Forward vol

The vol priced between two expirations, e.g. Oct 16 to Nov 20. It is a column in Term structure, with a sentence naming the cheapest and richest window. A rich window often lines up with a scheduled event.

Calibrated odds

In Expected move. An at-the-money option breaks even at expiry on a move of about 0.40σ. For 1 week and 1 month, Tempest shows:
  • that break-even move, in %
  • the textbook odds of reaching it (about 34% each way)
  • how often this stock actually got there over its past year, up (calls) and down (puts), each time against what options priced then
Your broker shows each contract’s breakeven and a model probability. This panel shows how often this stock reached that break-even in its own past year. It is history, not the odds for any option you hold.

Patterns traders watch

Traders use Tempest’s readings as context next to price, levels and flow. Below is what different kinds of traders commonly look at. These are descriptions, not recommendations. They are not tested signals, and nothing here says what a stock will do.

Reversal traders

They watch moves that have already run past what options priced: a 2σ day on the Sigma event preset, price at a band edge on Atlas, and the stock’s own big-move give-back history in Sigma. Many read those next to Heatseeker’s walls. Timing comes from price, not from Tempest.

Swing traders

They watch cheap premium: the Cheap vol, Skew flip and Coiled presets. Cheap premium has a catch: SVX is usually low because the stock has been quiet, and it can stay quiet. An earnings date inside the window means the premium is not really cheap (check the Earnings panel).

Breakout and momentum traders

They watch whether options start pricing a bigger move while price clears a level: SVX1D rising, the term curve moving toward backwardation. They also check the Market tab, because in a stressed market the same breakout reads differently.

Premium sellers

They look at how rich premium is for the stock (SVX %ile), whether implied sits above realized, whether an event falls inside the expiry, and how the settling-back history reads. The warning signs they watch: a backwardated term, negative gamma on Heatseeker, and low-priced stocks whose live readings run high (see Good to know).

Around earnings

Why it matters: options usually get expensive into a report and cheaper right after. Tempest shows whether this report is priced above or below the stock’s usual reaction. Where: ticker detail > Earnings (starts folded), and the E markers on SVX history.
  • Priced move vs typical past move: the Earnings panel shows the 1σ move priced for the report next to the stock’s past reactions. Past reactions describe past reports, not this one.
  • SVX1D spikes the night before by design (E markers on the history chart). Don’t read that spike as “rich” on its own.
  • After the report, vol usually drops. The morning after, premium is often much cheaper than the night before.

Use it with other Skylit tools

In plain English. Market makers hedge the options they hold. In positive gamma, that hedging means buying dips and selling rallies, which tends to dampen moves. In negative gamma, they hedge by trading with the move, which tends to speed it up. Heatseeker shows which regime a level sits in.
Tempest shows what the move costs and how big it is priced to be. Heatseeker shows where dealers are positioned. Heatseeker terms used in this guide:
  • GEX / VEX: Heatseeker’s gamma exposure and vanna exposure views.
  • Positive gamma / negative gamma: positive and negative nodes on the GEX view.
  • Wall: a large node, usually acting as a floor or ceiling.
  • Exposure skew: whether more of the board’s exposure sits above price or below it. Heatseeker has no single readout for it. Read it off the board, or ask Talon, which reports it as upside, downside or balanced.
The Heatseeker guide covers these in more depth. Together: On Atlas, the Tempest plugin draws the bands and levels next to your other plugins (see Expected moves on your chart). Talon can combine Tempest readings with Heatseeker exposure in one question (see Ask Talon).

Ask Talon

Why it matters: ask for any Tempest reading in plain English, from any page, without building filters by hand. Talon can also combine Tempest with Heatseeker exposure in one question. Where: open Talon from any page and type your question. Talon reads the same numbers as the Tempest page. It says when they were taken (after hours, e.g. “readings are from the Sep 22 close”) and describes what options are pricing. It does not give trade advice or explain how readings are calculated. How it behaves:
  • Heatseeker combinations check every match. Talon filters Tempest first, then reads Heatseeker exposure for every name that matched. Names without a recent Heatseeker reading are left out, and Talon says how many.
  • Approximate names are left out unless you ask for them (“include approximate”).
  • After the close everything is the close reading; during market hours it is live.
  • Cheap is not a direction. Cheap puts mean puts cost less than usual relative to calls; they do not say which way the stock goes. Talon will say so.

Good to know

  • Tempest is in beta. Readings, panels and names can change during the beta.
  • Tempest describes what options are pricing. It is not a forecast and not a recommendation. Expensive options can stay expensive, and cheap options on a quiet stock can stay cheap.
  • Low-priced stocks read high during market hours. For stocks under about $10, live readings can run noticeably higher than the same stock’s after-close reading, so they can look richer than they are. For stocks under about $25, lean on the after-close readings.
  • “Approximate” means rough. Names with too few quotes, or a very low share price, are marked Approximate. The radar hides them by default. Read them as a rough guide.
  • Short history means provisional percentiles. Under about 60 sessions of history, treat a stock’s percentiles as provisional.
  • Setups, settling-back history, calibrated odds and percentiles describe each stock’s own past, roughly the last one to two years, measured on that same history. They show what happened before, not what will happen next. Small counts (a handful of past episodes) are hints.
  • The S&P 9-day and 6-month readings run a little low next to Cboe’s (about 0.6 and 1.3 pts). The 30-day tracks the VIX closely.
  • Fear & Greed’s history uses fewer ingredients than today’s score. The live score uses all seven components; the history line uses the four index components only.
  • Expected-move bands have run a little wide, which is normal when options carry a premium over the moves that follow.
  • The patterns in this guide describe what traders watch. They are not recommendations and not tested signals.
  • Not in Tempest yet: alerts on volatility events, options flow combined with volatility, and skew history by delta.

What’s new

September 2026
  • Replay and pin Tempest cones on Atlas. Turn on Cone at replay time in the Tempest plugin’s settings to see, in Atlas replay, the cone options priced at that moment. Pin a cone and a scorecard tracks price against it. See Expected moves on your chart.
  • Weekend-adjusted SVX. Percentiles, setups, the usual range and SVX history use a weekend-adjusted reading, so Fridays stop looking cheap. A Weekend-adjusted checkbox on the history chart shows the standard reading. See Weekend-adjusted readings.
  • Why some names aren’t on the radar. Tap or hover the name count above the radar to see where the rest are. Search a name that isn’t on the radar and it opens with a short note saying why. See Why the radar shows fewer names than Tempest covers.
  • Tempest in Talon. Ask Talon about cheap or rich names, presets, one ticker, a day’s sigma or the market regime, even combined with Heatseeker exposure skew. See Ask Talon.
  • Resizable radar and detail panes. On desktop, drag the divider to resize the radar and ticker detail; the toolbar no longer covers them. Dealer levels moved to Heatseeker. See Read one stock: ticker detail.
  • Setups and the Coiled preset. Each ticker shows what followed past times in the same condition, next to a base rate. Skew flip and Coiled join the presets. See Setups: past episodes for this stock.
  • Implied vs actual, earnings record and calibrated odds. Ticker detail adds implied vs actual vol, spot-vol behaviour, earnings record, forward vol and calibrated odds. Panels fold and stay how you left them. See Vol-trader reads.
  • Skylit Fear & Greed and Mag 7 dispersion. The Market tab adds a Fear & Greed gauge built from options pricing, plus Mag 7 dispersion. The score also sits atop every Tempest page. See Skylit Fear & Greed.
  • A clearer Sigma panel. You see moves in dollars, the last big move, whether the stock breaks its range more than priced, and a tappable 60-session strip. See Sigma.
  • Tempest on your phone. On a phone the radar becomes cards with a filter sheet, and ticker detail gets a pinned header with section tabs. See Where to find it.
  • Premium imbalance preset fixed. The Premium imbalance preset had shown few or no names, especially after the close. Heavily traded names such as QQQ and AAPL now appear. See Two guards against false readings.
  • Longer SVX history with a usual range. SVX history reaches back up to five years, with a usual-range band and optional skew line. Settling back shows how often similar readings normalized. See SVX history.
  • Sector and theme groups on the radar. Group the radar by sector or theme to see which groups are rich or cheap together, and pick the horizon and lookback that rank it. See Rank the market: the radar.
  • Daily and weekly range levels on Atlas. The Atlas Tempest plugin can draw fixed daily and weekly range lines: today’s range priced at the prior close, and this week’s priced at last week’s close. See Expected moves on your chart.
  • Market tab. The new Market tab shows S&P 500 volatility: regime, term curve, VIX futures, vol of vol and tail risk. Tickers gain Skew and Earnings. See Market tab.

Glossary

Every term as the app defines it. Terms as they appear in the app (71 terms).